#TBT: State of the State Promises, One Month Later

By Gordon Hintz 

MADISON – Less than a month after a State of the State address where Governor Walker boasted about ‘stable’ state finances and promised to finally invest in education after over two billion dollars in cuts during the last five years, Republicans in the Legislature are poised to end the session with more bad fiscal news and additional cuts to public school classrooms.  To help keep score, Rep. Gordon Hintz (D-Oshkosh) offers this handy Throw Back Thursday State of the State Guide:

#TBT: “State finances are stable.”

Today: Just 48 hours later, the Legislative Fiscal Bureau released an updated revenue report that showed just six months into the two-year 2015-17 budget, Wisconsin is expected to take in $158 million less in revenue.  The report stated that “The downward revision for personal income growth in 2016 reflects reduced expectation for growth in wages and salaries…”

The projected net general fund balance at the end of 2015-17 has been reduced to just $70.2 million and the state will spend $148,802,100 more in 2016-17 than it brings in in revenue. As a result, the GOP Legislature has been forced to scale back legislation with any significant fiscal impact.

#TBT: “The Wisconsin Comeback is real.”

Today: Last week, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank announced that Wisconsin was one of only seven states that likely saw their economy contract during the last three months of 2015.  Their measure is an estimate using economic indicators to show how economic growth has changed for each state.  While five of the seven struggling states are oil producing or refining states impacted by low oil prices, Wisconsin joins Illinois as one of just two states with poor economic performance and fiscal issues. 

This data mirrors the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics preliminary estimates that show Wisconsin lost 8,800 private sector jobs between October, 2015 and December, 2015.

#TBT: “Now, we need to do more to reform state government and put those savings into public education.”

Today: Instead of increasing funding to public school classrooms, Republicans have decided in a last minute move to cut our public school classrooms… again.  Just yesterday, Republicans on the Education Committee passed a bill that appears headed to the floor to spread $14 million of cuts across 142 school districts.  This bill ensures that school districts that have voucher students will be forced to reduce educational opportunities for the children that remain in their public schools.

Rep. Hintz                                                                                                                                         

1-888-534-0054

Debunking Governor Walker’s SOTS Claims

 

MADISON- This evening, Governor Walker is scheduled to give his 2016 State of the State Address in the Assembly Chamber of the State Capitol at 7:00 p.m.  In advance of the occasion, Rep. Gordon Hintz (D-Oshkosh) released a useful primer to assist in interpreting the Governor’s most commonly-used statements made during the last few weeks leading up to the address.

1.     The truth behind Wisconsin’s workforce numbers

CLAIM: "We have at least according to two of the statistics from the federal government, the highest number of people last year working in the last 20 years."

(http://www.wearegreenbay.com/news/local-news/state-of-the-state-preview) 1/17/16

In May of 2010, Wisconsin had 3,074,000 people in the labor force (BLS).  In May of 2015, Wisconsin had 3,076,000 people in the labor force. The labor force growth rate over the past 5 years is an anemic 0.01%. Compare that to the growth of Indiana (.41%), Iowa (.31%), and Minnesota (.61%) over the same time period.

CLAIM: "We're one of the top 10 states in terms of the percentage of people in the work force."(http://www.wearegreenbay.com/news/local-news/state-of-the-state-preview) 1/17/16

This is not significant or new in any meaningful way. Wisconsin has typically had a higher labor participation rate than the rest of the U.S. going back to 1990. And it was higher than it is now under Governor Jim Doyle. Regionally, it has been higher than all neighboring states except Iowa and Minnesota. 

Month	WI	US	IL	IN	IA	MI	MN	OH
May-90	70.03	66.53	68.26	67.81	69.21	65.86	73.18	66.08
May-95	73.4	66.44	68.07	71.16	72.58	66.1	74.57	65.7
May-00	72.33	66.97	69.38	68.36	70.9	68.74	75.32	67.02
May-05	70.14	65.97	66.37	67.54	71.38	65.97	73.38	66.76
May-10	69.39	64.79	67.08	64.37	71.05	62.72	71.47	65.41
May-15	67.57	62.97	64.39	63.64	69.88	60.91	70.66	63.09

What is significant is that Wisconsin’s labor participation rate has dropped nearly 6 percentage points since 1995, exceeding all but Indiana and Michigan. This reflects that Wisconsin’s labor force as a percentage of population appears to be shrinking faster than most of our neighboring states.

2.     Low unemployment + slow job growth ≠ successful economic measure

CLAIM: “A recent revised report from the federal government shows that the unemployment rate in Wisconsin is the lowest it has been since the spring of 2001.”

Wisconsin does have low unemployment by almost any measure, although not as low as 15 other states.

So how can our unemployment rate be so low if our job creation rate is so bad?

The answer is that Wisconsin is losing workers at nearly every age level over the prime working years, with more people moving out of the state than are moving in. And the people who are moving out are predominantly 20-to-50 year olds. Had Wisconsin’s population growth stayed at the level consistent with our neighboring states growth rates, we would have had an additional 46,000 state residents 16 and over.  Our low unemployment rate is in part the product of workers who are choosing to leave the state for work.                         (http://www.uwosh.edu/faculty_staff/mcgee/Jobs_or_Unemployment.pdf)

3.     Job numbers need context

CLAIM: “The 16,600 new jobs created in the month of October is the best monthly jobs gain since April of 1992 and the best October since at least 1990.” And the 45,100 new private sector jobs added October over October is statistically significant.”

It is interesting that the Governor chose to tout October jobs in December, after the newer November numbers had been released.  The 12-month growth in November was nearly 13,000 jobs less than October's 32,400 and trailed neighboring states. A classic example of cherry-picking.

4.     “New businesses” that don’t actually exist.

CLAIM: “There has also been a net increase of over 43,000 new businesses.”

Governor Walker is referencing the number of newly registered "business entities". However, many of these entities have no employees at all, and never will.  According to Politifact, that is because the Governor’s numbers also include non-profits such as youth groups, recreational athletic leagues, and home associations. It also includes thousands of limited-liability companies only set up to function as holding companies, startups, and out-of-state companies that register as a placeholder in case they were to do business in Wisconsin in the future.

5.     “Chief Executive” Magazine

CLAIM: “Chief Executive Magazine today ranked Wisconsin the “12th Best State for Business” in its annual survey of CEOs, an increase of two spots over the 2014 ranking, and a significant increase since 2010, when the state ranked 41st.”

Business leaders were asked to grade states with which they are familiar on a variety of competitive metrics that CEOs themselves regard as critical. These include: 1) taxation and regulation; 2) quality of workforce; and 3) living environment. The tax and regulatory grade includes a measure of how CEOs grade a state’s attitude toward business, a key indicator. “

One of the State Advocate CEOs for Chief Executive.Net Magazine is none other than Diane Hendricks, Chairman of Hendricks Holding, Beloit, WI.  Forbes Magazine estimated Hendricks' March net worth at $2.8 billion. Hendricks and her husband, Kenneth, built ABC Supply. She became chairman of the company after her husband died in 2007. The company posts annual revenue of more than $4 billion.

She was also Scott Walker’s largest donor, and yet owed no state income tax in 2010.

In Summary, the rankings include “a measure of how CEOs grade a state’s attitude toward business, a key indicator.” In this case, how Diane Hendricks, Governor Walker’s largest donor perceives things to be in Wisconsin.

6.     K-12 education: taking credit from decades of investment

CLAIM:   “Schools are doing better.”            

  “High school graduation rates are up again — now ranking third in the nation.”                       

  “Reading/Math scores are up in fourth and eighth grades.”

  “ACT scores are second best in the nation.”

Most 2015 Wisconsin high school graduates started school in 2000 or 2001. Fourth graders started school in 2008 or 2009.  Eighth graders started school in 2004 or 2005.  The point is that the achievement at any of these levels is not a snapshot of momentary success.  It is the product of investments made in public education in our state over time.

Under Governor Walker and Republicans, K-12 GPR School Aids have lost more than $1 Billion ($1.05 Billion).  Recent cuts in state education spending, no matter how damaging, take years to work their way through the system as students moved from grade to grade.

Wisconsin is just beginning to feel the effects of Act 10 as there are fewer teachers, fewer students enrolling in teaching programs and a reduction in education licensing. 

7.     The UW System: When less is actually less.

CLAIM: “For the first time in University of Wisconsin history, in-state tuition is frozen at all UW campuses for four years in a row. That makes college more affordable for our students and working families.”

The UW System has lost $795 million in state aid since Governor Walker became Governor. In the strongest national economy in a decade, Governor Walker and the Republican Legislature cut $250 million in the most recent budget from our UW system. These cuts will lead to fewer courses offered and longer graduation times.  And the low morale is leading to high faculty turnover as talented professors leave for other states. 

Gordon Hintz 

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State of Governor Walker’s Wisconsin: Low Wages and Stagnant Job Creation

MADISON – In response to Governor Walker’s State of the State address, Rep. Chris Taylor (D-Madison) issued the following statement:

“During this entire legislative session, Governor Walker and legislative Republicans have shown that their priorities are protecting their own political careers, not the people of this state.  Time and time again we’ve seen this Governor and this Legislature put themselves, their campaigns and their own jobs, first.    

“Since coming into power and following Governor Walker’s lead, legislative Republicans have cut more than $2 billion from our public schools, universities and technical schools.  They expect our public schools to Book Fair and Bake Sale their way out of the black hole they have created for our state, and our children.  Tonight we heard Governor Walker’s plan for Divide and Conquer 2.0 – taking health care options away from state employees to throw pennies at our public schools, instead of making the education investment our children need.

“The vision outlined by Governor Walker tonight exemplifies a series of bad choices that continue to catapult Wisconsin’s families to lower wages, more student debt and fewer quality health care providers.”  

“It is not too late for Wisconsin.  We are just one decision away from starting to turn this ship around.  Accepting the federal Medicaid dollars provided a pathway to put more money into the classroom while reducing if not eliminating the funding cut to our higher education institutions.  Despite my colleagues taking their marching orders from the special interests bankrolling their campaign coffers, we as legislators must continue to fight for the Wisconsin we all believe in, and protect the people’s backs, not our own.”

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Office of Representative Chris Taylor

306 West – (608) 266-5342

PO Box 8953

Madison, WI  53708

Scotty GaGa

H/t Senator Chris Larson:

Scott Walker shared his State of the State speech ahead of time, applause breaks included:

Is anyone that petty, controlling and paranoid, really Presidential material? I thought it was pure power and ambition but it appears he is in it for the applause!

Preview Of The State Of The State Address

On Tuesday, Scott Walker is scheduled to give his first State of the State address.  Please do not confuse the snow job that Walker will be trying to pull on us with the real snow job that Mother Nature is dumping on us.

But so that you may enjoy your peppermint schnapps-laced hot cocoa after a grueling day fighting the elements, I will provide you with a preview of Walker's speech.

He will start out by telling us what a mess Governor Doyle left him to clean up.  He will use artificially inflated numbers, or even numbers pulled from a hat to make his point.  In other words, just look at his first State of the County speech, but substitute Doyle's name for Tom Ament's.

He will quickly follow this up by telling us how lucky we are for electing him, since he is the Chosen One, and that he will be able to single-handedly save us all from ruin.  He will tout the bills that he managed to ramrod through without sufficient public hearings or public input.  Things like paving over wetlands for an empty stores, giving tax breaks to all of his campaign contributors from WMC, and making sure that gays, minorities and poor people are kept under his boot heel where they belong.  Never mind that not one of his bills will create even one job nor save most Wisconsinites even one dime.

He will start out with the phony numbers for a couple of reasons.  One is to give him plausible doubt when his bills go haywire and we end up much worse than anyone could have imagined.  He is building the case to blame others for his own failure, a trait he is well-known for.

The other reason will be giving rise to his real agenda.

One of his goals is to bust up the unions.  He will present a plan to make the unions pay up to 20% of their salaries for health care and pension costs.  Walker will present it as "evening the playing field" with private sector workers, which is, of course, utter rubbish.  Walker won't ever dare offer any of his proposals at the negotiating table.  That way, he has cause, in his mind anyway, to lay off thousands of state workers and privatize the services.  In said privatizations, he will give handsome contracts to his campaign contributors which will end up costing more than if the services has remained in the public sector.

Another one of Walker's agenda items is to start dismantling public health care.  He will cite some unverifiable numbers indicating that Badger Care is under water and decided to through off hundreds of thousands of people from the system.  His dwindling faithful will be rejoicing thinking that this will save them some money on taxes.  The joke is on them though.  Their taxes will not go down, but their health care premiums will continue to climb at double digit rates.  The increase in premiums will be directly due to the higher number of people unable to afford basic medical care and will be waiting until they are so sick that they need emergency and costlier care than before.  The hospitals and insurance companies will pass these costs onto the rest of us through the premiums and charging $10 for an aspirin.

Just think, like his buddy Governor Jan Brewer, Walker can have his own death panels!

The remainder of the speech will consist of doublespeak for trying to convince us why we need to pay even more so that his rich business owners can have cuts to their already low taxes.  He'll drag out the same old tired dog and pony act claiming that it will create jobs, even though the same tax cuts on a national level only produced the Great Recession with higher unemployment.

Now that I've saved you the grief of having to listen to Walker's lies and false promises, go and enjoy the evening.  Maybe join your kids in monitoring the closing announcements to see if Wednesday is a snow day.  And don't forget the hot cocoa, liberally laced with schnapps.  We'll be needing a lot of that to get us through the next four years.