Battlin' Tom Barrett is sitting in the driver's seat as we enter this election year. He does not have any major opponents to contend with leading up to the September primary, so for the most part, he can just go out and glad hand people around the state in a relaxed, up beat fashion.
He will be able to put an emphasis on all of the good things he has done for the City of Milwaukee over the past eight years. Some of these include being a leader in resolving the issue of the
$91 million dollars in transit money that had been sitting idle for almost two decades; how he was recognized years ago for being much better at creating jobs and being given the reins of the
Private Industry Council; and how the City of Milwaukee is excelling at
economic development, and is actually being held up by Scott Walker's government. All of these will be important issues as the state continues its long climb out of the recession.
Meanwhile, on the Republican side of things, Scott Walker and Mark Neumann will be spending most of the year duking it out. Walker has already gone negative against
almost anyone and
everyone that would dare to challenge what he thinks is his divine right. I don't see any indication on why that would be changing anytime soon.
Walker is fairly limited in his repertoire. All he really has is the false pretense that he has kept spending and taxes down. But that can be and has already been easily been shown to be nothing more than a fairy tale. Given the poor shape that Milwaukee County is in, Walker can't very well run on his record and hope to survive long.
Neumann, on the other hand, has been out of politics for a decade, but in that time he has made himself into a successful businessman, worth millions of dollars, some of which he is not afraid to dump into his campaign. And he has Walker's track record which can make for easily identified campaign points and sound bites.
Come September, after the primary is held, one of these two men will come out the victor, but it will be a Pyrrhic victory to say the least. All the dirt will be out on them, and their images will be severely tarnished and dripping from the mud fight they just emerged from. On top of that, their campaign war chests will be empty, and they will need to run around just trying to raise enough money to make up for the rest of the way.
Meanwhile, Barrett will be coming in fresh as a daisy with a full coffer.
If Neumann survives, he will have to contend with his cold fish personality and his baggage of his extremist social views, especially his homophobia. His business acumen will pale compared to his vitriol, and people will naturally navigate towards Barrett. After all, who would want to be exposed to that much hate and anger and fear all the time.
If Walker should somehow survive the primary, he will have an even rougher road than Neumann would have. Not only will the poor condition of the county continue to be exposed, Walker's 2010 budget will have imploded, causing Walker to either look at raising taxes, losing his only base of the teabaggers, or he will have to shut down entire systems, which will making him even more unpopular than he already is. Meanwhile, while the City is having their own problems, their budget is balanced and barring any unforeseen cataclysm, should make it through the year relatively unscathed, and maybe even better than hoped.
During the time from the primary to the general election, both the City of Milwaukee and Milwaukee County will be going through the budget process for 2011. There again, Barrett has the upper hand over Walker. Walker will be forced, by his own ideological limitations, to do the mature thing, like striking a balanced budget. Instead, he will be forced to try to force the unions into further concessions (even though their still waiting for his current proposal - eighteen months over due*) and cut services even more. The majority of the Board no longer has the spine to stand up for their citizens, since they are either in cahoots with or afraid of
the enforcers of the special interests, namely, CRG.
On the other side, Barrett will have a much better go of things. First of all, he did not allow the City to slip into such a dangerous level of disrepair, even though there is a lot of work that needs to be done to the city's infrastructure as well. Also, the City's pension fund
has exceeded all expectations this past year, which could help alleviate, if not eliminate, a lot of that burden. This in turn would mean less need to consider raising taxes and/or cutting services. Plus Barrett was responsible enough not to allow the pension fund be tied into some risky get rich scheme, like
the one Walker actively sought out.
In summary, whether he ends up facing Mark Neumann, with his
bigoted and ultraconservative agenda, or Scott Walker, with his utterly disastrous track record and
discriminating attitude, this race is Tom Barrett's to lose.
*Walker's refusal to negotiate a contract cost tax payers in the area of $6-10 million in 2009 in lost savings. The total for 2010 is already at one million dollars.