Saturday, May 29, 2010

Walker's Big Mo?

After Republicanfest, I had predicted that Walker would have a small bump in the polls. As usual, I was correct:

The results of the poll from Tuesday by Rasmussen Reports show a strengthening of Walker and Neumann in head-to-head match ups with Barrett.

Walker leads Barrett 48% to 41%; Neumann leads Barrett 44% to 42%. Rasmussen described Walker's advantage over Barrett as "slight."

In another predictable move, Team Walker crowed about it:
Now there can be a lot said about the Rasmussen Poll that Walker is crowing about, such as their tendency to lean to the right. Or one could look at the Ron Johnson numbers to see how far off they really are.

But whether or not the numbers are accurate is not the point that I want to make. For the sake of argument, let's put the accuracy aside and take as a given that Rasmussen at least performs its polls in a consistent manner.

Walker tweeted "Let's keep the momentum going!" Indeed, let us look at what Rasmussen has to say about the momentum (emphasis mine):

Both Republicans have led Barrett in surveys back to the first of the year, with Walker consistently running slightly stronger than Neumann. But until this month support for the Democrat had been increasing steadily.

In the previous surveys, Barrett’s support has risen from 38% in January to 42% in March to 46% in April. Until the latest survey, Walker’s numbers had eroded slightly from a high of 49% in January. Neumann climbed from 42% in January to 46% last month.

Now, as I pointed out last week and again at the beginning of this post, it was expected that Walker would get a small bump in his numbers after Republicanfest. (Please note that I have not talked about how Walker failed to win it all when he was the only candidate on the ballot.)

Likewise, I would expect Barrett to get a bump in the polls after Democratfest in a couple of weeks.

Walker still has a number of millstones around his neck: The ongoing problems at BHD, the deterioration of the parks, questions about his campaign bike ride, his county aides/cronies politicking on county time and illegal campaign donations.

He's not going to be able to sweep all of these things under the rug and hope to keep them there for the next four months, much less six.

So, yes, Team Walker, keep up that momentum, or even increase it. The faster you realize that your chances are quickly landing somewhere between slim and none, the better off the state will be for it.

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