Wednesday, May 16, 2012

The Jobs are NOT There!

With the recall looming and Scott walker starting to worry about losing his cushy job, he knows one of his biggest obstacles is the fact that he promised 250,000 new jobs and he currently leads the nation in job losses.  The Walker administration has come up with a way to fix this.  No it is not sound economic policies tha tcreat new jobs that would be too easy and go against everything the republican party believes in.   The idea that the Walker administration had was to"cook the books"

 .According to Laura Dresser, a labor economist at The Center On Wisconsin Strategy at The University Of Wisconsin, Walker’s new numbers are little more than an incredibly transparent effort to create a false reality just in time to mislead Wisconsin voters who will cast their ballot in a few short weeks. Pointing out just one of the flaws in the ‘new and improved’ Walker method of measuring job growth, Dresser says, “It seems that they’re attributing employment growth in other states to Wisconsin.”
 The Walker administration will now be taking credit for every new job created in the Midwest.    He has already sent his paid monkey, court jester and fiction writer Christian Schneider out with a blow to explain why we need new numbers.   Luckily most people who are paying attention know that Schneider lacks any journalism ethics or reality so they will not pay attention to the paid hack.

 I am sure the next line of defense will be the right wing hate triad of talk radio.  Everyone should know that McKenna, Sykes and that other guy( his name escapes me at the moment), are being paid very well to advance the right wing propaganda.   This attack will be then followed by republican politicians. I am sure Robin Vos will lead the way, as he has higher ambitions.  Be aware however, Robin Vos's knowledge of economics comes strictly from paying divorce lawyers.

The intelligent thing to do would be to find someone without "skin in the game", like business insider magazine.  Business Insider magazine is a very good read, as they take us through Menzi Chinn's @econobrowser's breakdown of Walker's actual record and compares Scott Walker's ACTUAL job performance, not only to his promise and the national average, but also to IL.   (Spoiler alert:  Walker loses every time).

It's just too bad that from an economic standpoint, he's not a good governor.
Menzie Chinn at Econbrowser takes a look at his record on private sector job creation, and it turns out that not only is he well behind his own goals, he's just generally bad at it.
 This is followed up by the following three charts.

1.   is Walker's actual record compared to his promise:

Got that? Not only is Walker's record on private payroll employment far below his stated goal (it's not even close) but he's barely up since the beginning of 2011, when he took office.
That might be forgivable if private payrolls were doing badly overall over the last 16 months, but in fact the national scene is much different: Private payrolls are doing well, while state and local layoffs (like the ones pushed by Walker and his fellow Republican governors) are bringing down the headline numbers.

Who knew laying off people would have an adverse affect on the economy....let's move on to our second graph.  This one compares Wisconsin to the rest of the nation.  
It's pretty clear that Wisconsin is lagging badly under his tenure.
Now just for comparison purposes, lets compare WI under Walker to Illinois in the same time period:

 Yes even Illinois(blue line) is doing better than WI.
Let's get to the bottom line that every sane and credible economist has been saying since the 1930's.  
The bottom line: The idea of expansionary austerity (the idea that things will just get better if you cut spending and remove government) fails almost anywhere you look.



  1. Scot Walker's solution to leading Wisconsin into dead last place in job creation --(but hey, we're first in job loss!) -- is one of the more creative approaches since Henry VIII launched the Church of England in response to some misunderstandings with the pope about divorces and dead wives.

  2. Fyi, from a friend who really understands this stuff:

    This is a very dangerous action. Government statisticians have worked for decades to insure that politically sensitive data releases are insulated from the electoral winds by defining consensual rules and procedures to ensure that everyone, on all sides of the political spectrum, can agree
    on the underlying numbers, the processes that went into producing them, and the procedures for revision and change.

    Wisconsin has taken a step in violating those rules, and that step, if repeated in other states, would throw the national system of economic monitoring into chaos, with long-term effects on the trading markets and economic forecasting that are so essential to a well-functioning capitalist economy.

    We will get the BLS revision in late June that integrates QCEW information into the data series. And unless the WI results are
    dramatically different from those in every other state, we will still be debating what is going on in Wisconsin, no matter who wins the recall election on June 5.

    But we -- Walker -- still will have taken a dangerous action regarding an already fragile economy.

  3. As I said yesterday. They do not care about anything BUT being in power. They dont care how they do it, who gets hurt or what gets trampled as long as they are in control when the dust settles.

  4. @Anonymous -"we will get the BLS revision in late June that integrates the QCEW information into the data series."
    That's not right. In late June, the QCEW information for Oct-Dec of last year will come out for all states. However, they won't incorporate those numbers into the survey until early next year.

  5. The Koch brothers can buy any set of numbers that will benefit them. What a bunch of idiots. They think the American people don't see this. The Koch brothers have their puppet and don't want to lose him. So they cook the books, skew the numbers....the have the money to do it.

  6. Your first graph is flawed in that it assumes the promised job growth would be linear. Growth markets and successful businesses rarely grow linearly. Likely, the curve will turn exponential starting in 2013.

    1. You mean Walker is going to lose jobs at an even faster pace?!

  7. Likely based on what? Unicorn tears?

  8. His new scheme redefines the numbers for Wisconsin, but conveniently forgets to apply those new formuli to the other 49 states. If they did, we would again be shown to be at the bottom of the heap.

    We are seriously underwater and the governor wants to redefine sea level.