Friday, May 4, 2012

Kathleen Falk is THE Most Electable Candidate (updated)

Lets take a look at an updated graphic:
For those who think a "dane county liberal" can not be elected,lets compare how well Joanne Kloppenburg (who did not campaign in northern, WI) did compared to Tom "top of ticket" Barrett. Clearly all of the evidence points to Kathleen Falk being the "most electable" candidate!! Also wanted to point out that there is some misinformation about Kathleen Falk losing her statewide race in a big year for democrats.
Let us look at the ACTUAL RESULTS from that race!

Total Votes:

Jim Doyle: 1,139,115
Mark Green: 979,427

JB Van Hollen: 1,065,453

Kathleen Falk: 1056,594

Statewide Kathleen Falk drew 82,521 less votes than Jim Doyle and lost to JBVH by 8859. That is 10%, if 1 in ten people who voted for Doyle and did not vote for Falk had done so she would have won!

Now lets look at Dane County:

Jim Doyle: 149,661

Mark Green: 58302

JB Van Hollen: 72,348

Kathleen Falk: 138,507

In Dane County Kathleen Falk underperformed Jim Doyle by 11,154 votes. She lost the state by 8859. So breaking this down again, if80% of the people who voted for Doyle and did not vote for Falk would have, no one would know who JB Van Hollen is right now!
Now try and tell me that the Peg Lautenschlager supporters did not affect this race! 

PS: I have no problem with the Peg supporters feeling slighted and not voting Kathleen(even though I wish they would have voted for Kathleen). I just wanted to debunk the silliness that Kathleen Falk has not run and can not win a statewide election.

Kathleen Falk is THE most electable candidate we have! 

Tell all your friends, family and neighbors!


  1. Some slight disagreements and questions

    1. Kloppenburg did campaign (some) in Ashland/Bayfield County.

    2. Does Falk have the same ground game that Kloppenburg had in western WI?

    3. Is Falk and the Dems. geared up to get every vote accurately counted including in Waukesha County. No 7000 vote surprises?

  2. 1. Ok I apologize to Ms. kloppenburg

    2. I would say absolutely yes, Kathleen falk is a very hard worker, great campaigner and has a solid team behind her. She also has strong grassroots support.

    3. I would also say yes. The GAB is already planning on being in Waukesha to oversee the elections process and Lisa @ BB is all over this.

  3. This post is disingenuous in the extreme. What that Falk 2006 map says to me is that in an election where Democrats won the governor's race by a larger than expected margin, picked up four Senate seats, picked up eight Assembly seats, picked up a congressional seat, and won the Treasurer's office with a corrupt and incompetent Boston Store clerk, Kathleen Falk STILL couldn't win statewide. You can make all the excuses about Lautenschlager supporters that you want.

    Also, let's remember that Falk was completely unqualified for the AG position, as she had no experience as a prosecutor. Maybe if she hadn't run for an office that she wasn't qualified for, she'd be in a better position today.

  4. You just keep on pflucking that chicken, Mr. Falk lover. Barrett can beat scottyboy; Falk can't. Look at ALL the polls, sir.
    Let's not Naderize this chance to clean up Wisconsin.

  5. Im trying to avoid barrett "kerrying" WI

  6. Seem like all good folks for this primary, but, ya know, Vinehout really stood out to me with that debate last night.

    As I think about it, "out here," we have all seen the Barret and Falk commercials, and the commercials putting the hate on them.

    Lafollette seems like one hell of a good guy, always has. I really like his positive.

    But, man, I think Vinehout may really be the best suited, being not only her background, but man, she's been doing the work this whole time in the Government.

    I don't think Vinehout has been able to put the time in to effectively do any campaigning. I mean, I think I got one mailer from the campain, pretty much spelling it all out, and asking for contributions. I haven't seen any super-group endorsed or supported commercial campaigns on the airwaves here hardly at all for Vinehout.

    Seems like a truly independent candidate that wants to work together with people.

  7. I have no problem with Kathleen Vinehout I hink she will prove to be an important voice in WI in the next two years.

  8. Dude, when you look at the data and put it any sort of context, you could not be more wrong if you tried. Go inside the numbers, read em, and try not to weep.

    Among other things, it shows that Falk in 2006 did 7-10% worse than Barrett in 2010 when compared to other statewide Dems. And the most amazing part I stumbled upon was realizing that if Falk would have done as well as Jim Doyle in the City of Milwaukee in 2006, we would never have had to deal with "Attorney General" J.B. Van Hollen.

    And Barrett did 3% better than Doyle in 2010. I have a hard time buying that any Dem candidate will move the vote Dane County against them (the Dem is going to hammer Walker 75-25 with big turnout no matter who is the candidate), so explain to me how Falk moves the needle her way vs. Barrett is a race against Walker. I see no evidence of that whatsoever, but I see a lot of evidence indicating it AGAINST Falk.

  9. Thanks, Jake, for doing the work on the data. This is sense from memory as well -- and, of course, from common sense about the very different contexts here and nationwide in 2006 vs. 2010.

    And I still cannot imagine how Falk would handle the obvious question that the other Dems have not raised: Why she quit halfway through her last term to retire from politics. The reason that I cannot imagine how that would fly for Falk after next Tuesday is because she has not addressed it. Walker would, and we deserve to know ahead of time if we are to vote for her this Tuesday.

    For me, the lack of that answer, of the openness that we need after Walker's secrecy, automatically rules her out for me, even before other issues such as the one that you answer statistically about her electability.

  10. Interesting -- and indicative of how weird are Wisconsin politics these days -- that this piece by Jeff Simpson is linked from Madison media today to come to the opposite conclusion regarding Falk's electability even in her own county:

  11. I m not worried bout Dane County, it will take care of itself. What I'm pointing out here is that Kathleen Falk can pull votes statewide....

  12. CD, your own guy tosses your "analysis"...

    Maslin says one should not pay too much attention to the results of the 2006 and 2010 races when analyzing the recall election.

    “You should throw everything from 2006 and 2010 out the window,” he says. “What matters is the 800,000 people (statewide) who voted in the presidential election in 2008 but not in the 2010 election for governor. How are those people going to vote?”

    Let's hope whomever the candidate is, they will vote against Walker.

    Read more: